Comments on: Brilliant! http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/ Random samplings from a universe of ideas Mon, 08 Sep 2008 00:53:30 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Cosmic Variance: Speculating on the beginning of the universe « Identity Unknown http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-254635 Cosmic Variance: Speculating on the beginning of the universe « Identity Unknown Fri, 27 Apr 2007 20:44:31 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-254635 [...] I’m on record as predicting that we’ll understand what happened at the Big Bang within fifty years. Not just the “Big Bang model” — the paradigm of a nearly-homogeneous universe expanding from an early hot, dense, state, which has been established beyond reasonable doubt — but the Bang itself, that moment at the very beginning. So now is as good a time as any to contemplate what we already think we do and do not understand. (Also, I’ll be talking about it Saturday night on Coast to Coast AM, so it’s good practice.) [...] [...] I’m on record as predicting that we’ll understand what happened at the Big Bang within fifty years. Not just the “Big Bang model” — the paradigm of a nearly-homogeneous universe expanding from an early hot, dense, state, which has been established beyond reasonable doubt — but the Bang itself, that moment at the very beginning. So now is as good a time as any to contemplate what we already think we do and do not understand. (Also, I’ll be talking about it Saturday night on Coast to Coast AM, so it’s good practice.) [...]

]]> By: How Did the Universe Start? | Cosmic Variance http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-254536 How Did the Universe Start? | Cosmic Variance Fri, 27 Apr 2007 16:54:26 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-254536 [...] I’m on record as predicting that we’ll understand what happened at the Big Bang within fifty years. Not just the “Big Bang model” — the paradigm of a nearly-homogeneous universe expanding from an early hot, dense, state, which has been established beyond reasonable doubt — but the Bang itself, that moment at the very beginning. So now is as good a time as any to contemplate what we already think we do and do not understand. [...] [...] I’m on record as predicting that we’ll understand what happened at the Big Bang within fifty years. Not just the “Big Bang model” — the paradigm of a nearly-homogeneous universe expanding from an early hot, dense, state, which has been established beyond reasonable doubt — but the Bang itself, that moment at the very beginning. So now is as good a time as any to contemplate what we already think we do and do not understand. [...]

]]> By: Lattice Forecast for 2056 « Life on the Lattice http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-148562 Lattice Forecast for 2056 « Life on the Lattice Fri, 08 Dec 2006 23:58:09 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-148562 [...] Via Cosmic Variance and BioCurious: New Scientist has some well-known scientist forecast where science will be in 50 years. [...] [...] Via Cosmic Variance and BioCurious: New Scientist has some well-known scientist forecast where science will be in 50 years. [...]

]]> By: Kuas http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-143814 Kuas Tue, 28 Nov 2006 03:01:03 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-143814 Kurzweil is not naive: he just puts forth naive arguments because they sell. He's smart enough to put his predictions safely into the future. Now he says the singularity is 2045, seems like people yousta be predicting around 2010. Wonder if we're ever going to catch it. Kurzweil is not naive: he just puts forth naive arguments because they sell. He’s smart enough to put his predictions safely into the future.

Now he says the singularity is 2045, seems like people yousta be predicting around 2010. Wonder if we’re ever going to catch it.

]]> By: hack http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-143805 hack Tue, 28 Nov 2006 02:41:49 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-143805 String theory will be fertile? Horse manure is fertile. String theory will be fertile? Horse manure is fertile.

]]> By: Bugs 'n' Gas Gal http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-143240 Bugs 'n' Gas Gal Sun, 26 Nov 2006 14:45:00 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-143240 Genetically modified children will be born with repairs to inherited diseases and possibly with enhancements that promote selected tendencies such as those favoring greater skill in sports, art, languages, analytical thinking, etc. Genetically modified children will be born with repairs to inherited diseases and possibly with enhancements that promote selected tendencies such as those favoring greater skill in sports, art, languages, analytical thinking, etc.

]]> By: chemicalscum http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-143032 chemicalscum Sun, 26 Nov 2006 01:16:10 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-143032 It is interesting to note the number of "the most brilliant and charismatic and modest scientists" included who can essentially be described as "many worlders": Weinberg, Tegmark, Deutsch, Rees and Wilcek. On this I love Tegmark's new many different TOE T-shirts theory. It is interesting to note the number of “the most brilliant and charismatic and modest scientists” included who can essentially be described as “many worlders”: Weinberg, Tegmark, Deutsch, Rees and Wilcek.

On this I love Tegmark’s new many different TOE T-shirts theory.

]]> By: 博客李淼 » 一春幽梦有无间 http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-142536 博客李淼 » 一春幽梦有无间 Fri, 24 Nov 2006 11:34:12 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-142536 [...] 要想看到更多的这帮人的“幽梦”细节，请看Carroll的原文和那里的链接。 [...] [...] 要想看到更多的这帮人的“幽梦”细节，请看Carroll的原文和那里的链接。 [...]

]]> By: Fermi-Walker Public Transport http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-142247 Fermi-Walker Public Transport Thu, 23 Nov 2006 11:50:30 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-142247 Predictions for 2056 ? there will still be people saying the practical fusion reactors are only fifty years away. It comes across as an unfunny version of Chevy Chase solemly reminding TV viewers that "Francisco Franco is still dead". Predictions for 2056 ? there will still be people saying the practical fusion reactors are only fifty years away.
It comes across as an unfunny version of Chevy Chase solemly reminding TV viewers that “Francisco Franco is still dead”.

]]> By: Paul Valletta http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-142116 Paul Valletta Thu, 23 Nov 2006 02:56:28 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-142116 Having read R Penrose's:What is reality? first, I started reading through the other "Big Questions", having not completed all the authors writings, I was amazed by Nick Bostrom's : Do we live in a computer simulation ? Things start to get complex and confusing having reached the hope's of Alexander Vilkin, "My hope is that Cosmic strings will be discovered. Strings are relics of the hot,high-energy epoch in the early Universe. They are thin tubes of energy sweeping through space at close to the speed of light. Strings are extremely heavy;1 metre of string can weigh as much as a thousand trillion tonnes. Cosmic strings may or may not exist. They are predicted in many particle physics models." If a model "predicts" something, then surely they/it exists? This paragraph by AV caused me some discomfort: Why is it that some models predict things that cannot be confirmed or unconfirmed?..is Prediction a guarantee, or merely a PROBABILITY, ie neither true or false? Having read R Penrose’s:What is reality? first, I started reading through the other “Big Questions”, having not completed all the authors writings, I was amazed by Nick Bostrom’s : Do we live in a computer simulation ?

Things start to get complex and confusing having reached the hope’s of Alexander Vilkin, “My hope is that Cosmic strings will be discovered. Strings are relics of the hot,high-energy epoch in the early Universe. They are thin tubes of energy sweeping through space at close to the speed of light. Strings are extremely heavy;1 metre of string can weigh as much as a thousand trillion tonnes. Cosmic strings may or may not exist. They are predicted in many particle physics models.”

If a model “predicts” something, then surely they/it exists?

This paragraph by AV caused me some discomfort: Why is it that some models predict things that cannot be confirmed or unconfirmed?..is Prediction a guarantee, or merely a PROBABILITY, ie neither true or false?

]]> By: Elliot http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-142085 Elliot Thu, 23 Nov 2006 01:25:23 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-142085 I expect that cancer will be unravelled over the next 50 years and the basic outcome will that preventative nutrition and other lifestyle recommendations can eliminate 90% of cancers. I expect that cancer will be unravelled over the next 50 years and the basic outcome will that preventative nutrition and other lifestyle recommendations can eliminate 90% of cancers.

]]> By: Ijon Tichy http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-142059 Ijon Tichy Thu, 23 Nov 2006 00:08:31 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-142059 Oh, and one more I'm virtually certain about: * Religion will continue to have a stranglehold over the vast bulk of humanity, especially in countries where poverty is rampant, but even in rich, well-educated societies, although in the latter it will be in a less organised, less traditional form. Oh, and one more I’m virtually certain about:

* Religion will continue to have a stranglehold over the vast bulk of humanity, especially in countries where poverty is rampant, but even in rich, well-educated societies, although in the latter it will be in a less organised, less traditional form.

]]> By: Ijon Tichy http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-142058 Ijon Tichy Thu, 23 Nov 2006 00:02:01 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-142058 First a dozen things I think we won't see in 50 years time: * Interstellar space travel. * Mammal-level AI. * Insect-level robotics. * Practical large-scale fusion. * A quantum theory of gravity. * Long-range weather prediction. * Elimination of poverty and war. * Mind uploading. * Elimination or great reduction of mental illness. * Humans visit Mars. * Space elevators. * Middle-class space tourism. Five things I think we might see or are likely to see: * Rich people will extend their life expectancy by 20 or 30 years. * Among rich and middle-class people, cancer and heart disease will no longer be the major killers that they once were. * Dark matter will be explained for the most part, but dark energy will remain a mystery. * SETI will detect some very interesting signals, but scientists will not agree as to whether these signals are intelligent or not. * Two more Millennium prize problems solved. Two things I am not sure about at all: * Practical quantum computers. * Detection of gravitational waves. Two things I am very sure about: * Very unexpected and astonishing discoveries will be made. * Ray Kurzweil will continue to make ridiculous, outlandish predictions, and people will continue to pay him for it. First a dozen things I think we won’t see in 50 years time:

* Interstellar space travel.
* Mammal-level AI.
* Insect-level robotics.
* Practical large-scale fusion.
* A quantum theory of gravity.
* Long-range weather prediction.
* Elimination of poverty and war.
* Mind uploading.
* Elimination or great reduction of mental illness.
* Humans visit Mars.
* Space elevators.
* Middle-class space tourism.

Five things I think we might see or are likely to see:

* Rich people will extend their life expectancy by 20 or 30 years.
* Among rich and middle-class people, cancer and heart disease will no longer be the major killers that they once were.
* Dark matter will be explained for the most part, but dark energy will remain a mystery.
* SETI will detect some very interesting signals, but scientists will not agree as to whether these signals are intelligent or not.
* Two more Millennium prize problems solved.

Two things I am not sure about at all:

* Practical quantum computers.
* Detection of gravitational waves.

Two things I am very sure about:

* Very unexpected and astonishing discoveries will be made.
* Ray Kurzweil will continue to make ridiculous, outlandish predictions, and people will continue to pay him for it.

]]> By: Brad http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-142030 Brad Wed, 22 Nov 2006 21:18:33 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-142030 The broadest over-arching consequence of advances in medicine and technology in general will most likely be that organised religion will die out. I think the reason educated people are less religious is that they appreciate how much of the world is potentially under our own control. This perception will become ever more widespread over the next fifty years as more people come into contact with the consequences of modern understanding of the world around us. Religion will die out not because of any kind of reverse evangelising, but simply because it will become self-evidently stupid to most people. The broadest over-arching consequence of advances in medicine and technology in general will most likely be that organised religion will die out. I think the reason educated people are less religious is that they appreciate how much of the world is potentially under our own control. This perception will become ever more widespread over the next fifty years as more people come into contact with the consequences of modern understanding of the world around us. Religion will die out not because of any kind of reverse evangelising, but simply because it will become self-evidently stupid to most people.

]]> By: Count Iblis http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-141977 Count Iblis Wed, 22 Nov 2006 18:10:09 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-141977 sbar, de Garis may be exaggerating things. But what I find unrealistic is that somehow the transhumanists will care a lot about biological humans. The transhumanists will have virtually no limits to continue to develop and within a short amount of time they will be so different from us that to them there won't be much of a difference between humans, chimps, rats etc. How well do we treat these animals (they are much closer related to us than the transumanist will be to us)? sbar,

de Garis may be exaggerating things. But what I find unrealistic is that somehow the transhumanists will care a lot about biological humans. The transhumanists will have virtually no limits to continue to develop and within a short amount of time they will be so different from us that to them there won’t be much of a difference between humans, chimps, rats etc.

How well do we treat these animals (they are much closer related to us than the transumanist will be to us)?

]]> By: sbar http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-141947 sbar Wed, 22 Nov 2006 16:57:40 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-141947 I think Kurzweil views are more firmly grounded. he describes what logically has a good probability of happening based on historical technological trends. De Garis is deeply pessimistic and believes the luddites and the tranhumanists will fight a "gigadeath" war. This seems very overstated. The luddites historically have episodically held back progress here and there but never in a lasting significant way. As a result we're here reading blogs instead of hunting and gathering. I think Kurzweil views are more firmly grounded. he describes what logically has a good probability of happening based on historical technological trends. De Garis is deeply pessimistic and believes the luddites and the tranhumanists will fight a “gigadeath” war. This seems very overstated. The luddites historically have episodically held back progress here and there but never in a lasting significant way. As a result we’re here reading blogs instead of hunting and gathering.

]]> By: Urbano http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-141940 Urbano Wed, 22 Nov 2006 16:15:34 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-141940 There will be a blog called "Prespoterous Cosmic Cocktail Party" (written without a keyboard, of course) whose contributors are going to be the "little Sean" and/or "little Jennifer" + parents :-). There will be a blog called “Prespoterous Cosmic Cocktail Party” (written without a keyboard, of course) whose contributors are going to be the “little Sean” and/or “little Jennifer” + parents :-).

]]> By: Count Iblis http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-141903 Count Iblis Wed, 22 Nov 2006 14:09:31 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-141903 <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/broadband/tx/singularity/clash/" rel="nofollow">Ray Kurzweil and Hugo de Garis give their views here. </a> I agree with de Garis that Kurzweils view is naive. Ray Kurzweil and Hugo de Garis give their views here.

I agree with de Garis that Kurzweils view is naive.

]]> By: fh http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-141879 fh Wed, 22 Nov 2006 11:48:22 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-141879 Incidentally the distinction between artificial and natural intelligence becomes obsolete. Incidentally the distinction between artificial and natural intelligence becomes obsolete.

]]> By: fh http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/11/20/brilliant/#comment-141877 fh Wed, 22 Nov 2006 11:46:22 +0000 http://cosmicvariance.com/?p=1035#comment-141877 Biggest breakthrough? Mind Machine Interfaces are perfected eventually allowing the uploading of human minds to computers. The ensuing social revolution is comparable to that of the invention of language. Biggest breakthrough? Mind Machine Interfaces are perfected eventually allowing the uploading of human minds to computers. The ensuing social revolution is comparable to that of the invention of language.

]]>