Comments on: Thank Stanislav Petrov Day http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/ Random samplings from a universe of ideas. Mon, 01 Dec 2008 22:10:17 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.1 By: Pandora’s box | Cosmic Variance http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14880 Pandora’s box | Cosmic Variance Sun, 30 Apr 2006 21:56:52 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14880 [...] What are the chances, with all those weapons out there, that someone will use one, say in the next fifty years? Extremely high, I would guess. None has been used in the last fifty years, it’s true, but for most of that time we lived in a bipolar world with clearly defined lines of engagement and relatively symmetrical capabilities and liabilities. (The above list doesn’t even mention non-state groups, of course.) A more fragmented situation exponentially increases the number of events that could lead to a nuclear strike, including the possibility of accidents. And the number of nuclear-capable states shows little signs of decreasing in the near future. [...] […] What are the chances, with all those weapons out there, that someone will use one, say in the next fifty years? Extremely high, I would guess. None has been used in the last fifty years, it’s true, but for most of that time we lived in a bipolar world with clearly defined lines of engagement and relatively symmetrical capabilities and liabilities. (The above list doesn’t even mention non-state groups, of course.) A more fragmented situation exponentially increases the number of events that could lead to a nuclear strike, including the possibility of accidents. And the number of nuclear-capable states shows little signs of decreasing in the near future. […]

]]> By: flyingpenguin » Blog Archive » Stanislav Evgrafovich Petrov Day http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14879 flyingpenguin » Blog Archive » Stanislav Evgrafovich Petrov Day Wed, 19 Apr 2006 03:38:40 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14879 [...] Stanislav Evgrafovich Petrov Day I agree with Cosmic Variance that there should be an international Stanislav Evgrafovich Petrov day to celebrate human reasoning. Those with the most compassion and experience seem the least likely to jump to false conclusions, and therefore are worthy of recognition for the hugely beneficial role they play in modern society. The Wikipedia explains: Stanislav Evgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станислав Евграфович Петров) (born c. 1939) is a retired Russian Army colonel who, on September 26, 1983, averted a potential nuclear war by refusing to believe that the United States had launched missiles against the USSR, despite the indications given by his computerized early warning systems. The Soviet computer reports were later shown to have been in error, and Petrov is credited with preventing World War III and the devastation of much of the Earth by nuclear weapons. Because of military secrecy and international policy, Petrov’s actions were kept secret until 1998. [...] […] Stanislav Evgrafovich Petrov Day I agree with Cosmic Variance that there should be an international Stanislav Evgrafovich Petrov day to celebrate human reasoning. Those with the most compassion and experience seem the least likely to jump to false conclusions, and therefore are worthy of recognition for the hugely beneficial role they play in modern society. The Wikipedia explains: Stanislav Evgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станислав Евграфович Петров) (born c. 1939) is a retired Russian Army colonel who, on September 26, 1983, averted a potential nuclear war by refusing to believe that the United States had launched missiles against the USSR, despite the indications given by his computerized early warning systems. The Soviet computer reports were later shown to have been in error, and Petrov is credited with preventing World War III and the devastation of much of the Earth by nuclear weapons. Because of military secrecy and international policy, Petrov’s actions were kept secret until 1998. […]

]]> By: Troublemaker http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14849 Troublemaker Tue, 18 Apr 2006 20:28:51 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14849 Jesus has had 2000 years to prove his usefulness, and he isn't doing so well. Jesus has had 2000 years to prove his usefulness, and he isn’t doing so well.

]]> By: Kakarot http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14848 Kakarot Tue, 18 Apr 2006 19:08:41 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14848 Thank you Mr. Petrov. How short-sighted it is, while seeing the direct consequence of Mr. Petrov's action but failing to see the benefits you are enjoying owing to Jesus' teaching and the consequences of His action. And you complain that people fail to see the value of fundamental physics because they can't see direct benefits of it. You hypocrites. Thank you Mr. Petrov.

How short-sighted it is, while seeing the direct consequence of Mr. Petrov’s action but failing to see the benefits you are enjoying owing to Jesus’ teaching and the consequences of His action. And you complain that people fail to see the value of fundamental physics because they can’t see direct benefits of it. You hypocrites.

]]> By: invcit http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14847 invcit Tue, 18 Apr 2006 18:53:08 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14847 "But it's tricky. If deterrence is going to work, you have to have a credible threat, which means that you have to have a system that can let those missiles fly, whereas if it actually does come down to Armageddon, really there's no point in launching them..." Yes, which is why it can be better to have a less destructive strategy as a second option which is more likely to be carried out. Game theory applied to the situation also demonstrates how it can be better to have fewer options, i. e. take away the option of not pushing the launch button, since that will make your enemy more afraid of you. “But it’s tricky. If deterrence is going to work, you have to have a credible threat, which means that you have to have a system that can let those missiles fly, whereas if it actually does come down to Armageddon, really there’s no point in launching them…”

Yes, which is why it can be better to have a less destructive strategy as a second option which is more likely to be carried out.
Game theory applied to the situation also demonstrates how it can be better to have fewer options, i. e. take away the option of not pushing the launch button, since that will make your enemy more afraid of you.

]]> By: Matt McIrvin http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14846 Matt McIrvin Tue, 18 Apr 2006 12:54:00 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14846 I wouldn't retaliate under any circumstances, which is probably why I am not missile-silo material. See Theodore Sturgeon, "Thunder and Roses". But it's tricky. If deterrence is going to work, you have to have a credible threat, which means that you have to have a system that <em>can</em> let those missiles fly, whereas if it actually does come down to Armageddon, really there's no point in launching them... I wouldn’t retaliate under any circumstances, which is probably why I am not missile-silo material. See Theodore Sturgeon, “Thunder and Roses”.

But it’s tricky. If deterrence is going to work, you have to have a credible threat, which means that you have to have a system that can let those missiles fly, whereas if it actually does come down to Armageddon, really there’s no point in launching them…

]]> By: Tony Smith http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14845 Tony Smith Tue, 18 Apr 2006 06:59:26 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14845 Sean says "... on September 26, 1983. Lieutenant Colonel Petrov was the officer on duty at the Serpukhov-15 bunker near Moscow with the responsibility of alerting Soviet command if there was any indication that the U.S. had launched a nuclear missile strike against the U.S.S.R. ... Just after midnight, the computers indicated that an American missile had been launched. ... (see Wikipedia for more) ... Petrov decided that the multiple launches were still a computer error rather than a real attack, and declined to alert his superiors ...". The Wikipedia article did not answer all the questions that came to my mind about the incident, but it had a link that eventually led me to http://www.brightstarsound.com/world_hero/skepticism.html which said in part: "... on Jan. 19, 2006, the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations issued a press release, reproduced below, contending that a single individual would be incapable of starting or preventing a nuclear war ...". That press release said in part: "... Often natural phenomena like flocks of birds or the Northern Lights were taken as ICBMs. Under no circumstances a decision to use nuclear weapons could be made or even considered in the Soviet Union (Russia) or in the United States on the basis of data from a single source or a system. ... Therefore, even if one officer "had reported a satellite signal about an incoming nuclear missile", the nuclear war would never have started. ... information automatically fed from satellites is directed to various recipients, and a single hero or miscreant cannot stop it. ...". Note the phrase "hero or miscreant". If Petrov had been able to launch a nuclear war by making a report, then that would mean that the Dr. Strangelove scenario (launching attack by one miscreant as in that movie) would have been a possibility. Since the Dr. Strangelove scenario was well known decades before 1983, and so was likely to have been taken into account by both the USSR and the USA by well prior to 1983, the Russion Federation statement of 2006 sounds credible and reasonable to me. Tony Smith http://www.valdostamuseum.org/hamsmith/ Sean says “… on September 26, 1983. Lieutenant Colonel Petrov was the officer on duty at the Serpukhov-15 bunker near Moscow with the responsibility of alerting Soviet command if there was any indication that the U.S. had launched a nuclear missile strike against the U.S.S.R. … Just after midnight, the computers indicated that an American missile had been launched. … (see Wikipedia for more) … Petrov decided that the multiple launches were still a computer error rather than a real attack, and declined to alert his superiors …”.

The Wikipedia article did not answer all the questions that came to my mind about the incident, but it had a link that eventually led me to http://www.brightstarsound.com/world_hero/skepticism.html which said in part:
“… on Jan. 19, 2006, the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations issued a press release, reproduced below, contending that a single individual would be incapable of starting or preventing a nuclear war …”.
That press release said in part:
“… Often natural phenomena like flocks of birds or the Northern Lights were taken as ICBMs. Under no circumstances a decision to use nuclear weapons could be made or even considered in the Soviet Union (Russia) or in the United States on the basis of data from a single source or a system. … Therefore, even if one officer “had reported a satellite signal about an incoming nuclear missile”, the nuclear war would never have started. … information automatically fed from satellites is directed to various recipients, and a single hero or miscreant cannot stop it. …”.

Note the phrase “hero or miscreant”. If Petrov had been able to launch a nuclear war by making a report, then that would mean that the Dr. Strangelove scenario (launching attack by one miscreant as in that movie) would have been a possibility. Since the Dr. Strangelove scenario was well known decades before 1983, and so was likely to have been taken into account by both the USSR and the USA by well prior to 1983, the Russion Federation statement of 2006 sounds credible and reasonable to me.

Tony Smith
http://www.valdostamuseum.org/hamsmith/

]]> By: Troublemaker http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14844 Troublemaker Tue, 18 Apr 2006 03:44:44 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14844 What constitutes a "cheap shot" by someone against something that he considers completely devoid of value and worthy only of scorn and ridicule? If your opinion of something is that it is garbage, then you're not going to think twice about insulting it gratuitously. Duh. Besides, it did have something to do with the post. Instead of honoring Jesus, who didn't save the world from anything, let's honor Petrov, who did. What constitutes a “cheap shot” by someone against something that he considers completely devoid of value and worthy only of scorn and ridicule? If your opinion of something is that it is garbage, then you’re not going to think twice about insulting it gratuitously. Duh.

Besides, it did have something to do with the post. Instead of honoring Jesus, who didn’t save the world from anything, let’s honor Petrov, who did.

]]> By: Alejandro http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14878 Alejandro Tue, 18 Apr 2006 01:17:01 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14878 Re bittergradstudent's comment (24), there is a short SF story by Arthur Clarke ("The Last Command") exploring your question, with a couple of neat twists at the end. It is included in the collection "The Wind from the Sun". Re bittergradstudent’s comment (24), there is a short SF story by Arthur Clarke (”The Last Command”) exploring your question, with a couple of neat twists at the end. It is included in the collection “The Wind from the Sun”.

]]> By: Rob Knop http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14877 Rob Knop Mon, 17 Apr 2006 20:37:31 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2006/04/15/thank-stanislav-petrov-day/#comment-14877 Sure, of course a cheap shot against religion don't hurt the post to an anti-religion person reading it. But it *does* weaken it for others, and the cheap shot had nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with the point of the post. There have been "let's stay on topic" admonitions above. That could have started with the original post Sean made.... Sure, of course a cheap shot against religion don’t hurt the post to an anti-religion person reading it. But it *does* weaken it for others, and the cheap shot had nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with the point of the post.

There have been “let’s stay on topic” admonitions above. That could have started with the original post Sean made….

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